#1 El margen de mejora factible de los modelos meteorológicos

--534103-- — Sat, 04 Mar 2017 12:39:22 +0000

Enlaces para aventurarse en el fascinante mundo de los límites teóricos de las predicciones meteorológicas... aviso que es muy caótico:

Hilos en foros:
- Reddit/AskScience: “What is the theoretical upper limit on weather forecasting?” (2016): www.reddit.com/r/AskScienceDiscussion/comments/4d3der/what_is_the_theo
- StackExchange/Physics: “Is long-term weather forecast impossible in principle?” (2015): physics.stackexchange.com/questions/212946/is-long-term-weather-foreca
- StackExchange/Physics: “How to calculate the upper limit on the number of days weather can be forecast reliably?” (2011): physics.stackexchange.com/questions/6026/how-to-calculate-the-upper-li

Artículos en revistas científicas:
- Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society (nombre con solera, decimonónico dónde los haya ): “Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction” (2011): www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3270390/ (pdf: rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/roypta/369/1956/4751.full.pdf )
- Ecosphere (de la Ecological Society of America: www.esa.org/esa/ ): “The limits to prediction in ecological systems” (2011) (pdf): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES11-00211.1/pdf

Páginas de ciencia:
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): “Introduction to chaos, predictability and ensemble forecasts” www.ecmwf.int/en/introduction-chaos-predictability-and-ensemble-foreca
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): “Predictability of Weather and Climate: From Theory to Practice - From Days to Decades” (2003) (pdf): www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2003/11490-predictability-w
- Institute of Physics (IoP) ( www.iop.org/ ) “Predicting The Unpredictable” (2011): (pdf) www.iop.org/activity/groups/subject/env/prize/winners/file_56331.pdf
- The Weather Window: “What Limits Forecast Accuracy?”: weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Forecast-Accuracy-Limitations
- Weather 2000: “Frequently Asked Questions” (sobre ese tema) www.weather2000.com/faq/faq_integrity.html
- MIT Technology Review: “When the Butterfly Effect Took Flight” (2011): www.technologyreview.com/s/422809/when-the-butterfly-effect-took-fligh

Otros:
- Wikipedia en Inglés (¡muy completo!): “Numerical weather prediction (NWP)”: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction
- The Atlantic: “Tornado Forecasters Are Closing In on the Theoretical Limit of Prediction-Accuracy” (2014): www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2014/04/tornado-forecasters-are-c

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#1 El margen de mejora factible de los modelos meteorológicos